« 'Minsk II agreed to arm Ukraine' - Did Merkel really say that?|Mainly|MoA Review of the Week - (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-221 »
December 10, 2022
Ukraine SitRep - Catastrophic Casualties, Missing Silver Bullets, NATO Escalation
The Russian military still makes up the bulk of the more than 300,000 men and volunteers deployed.by Putin25% of the deployed forces are in combat units, 25% in rear positions, while 50% are training in Russia. It does not appear that an imminent major attack on the Ukrainian front lines is in sight. The expected big winter attack may not happen. Instead, the new forces will rotate on the front lines, attacking only locally whenever they see an opportunity.
The Russian does not need to attack. His job is to demilitarize Ukraine. As long as the Ukrainians are in front and attacking the Russians, there is no need to launch a major attack against them.
The map from a month ago compared to today shows only a few small changes on the frontlines.
Those ones:LiveUAmap-bigger
December 10, 2022
Those ones:LiveUAmap-bigger
But that doesn't mean nothing happens.
Those ones:LiveUAmap-bigger
Every day, all front sections are filled with artillery/bomb icons. This is mainly Russian artillery mowing the lawn and killing Ukrainian soldiers.
Last month, it was mostly Ukrainians who attacked along the front, only to be met with steel walls and explosions. They failed to break through the Russian lines. They tried again and again but failed with heavy losses.
Russian attacks were mainly limited to the Bakhmut/Artemovsk front, where the Wagner group of private military companies captured several Ukrainian trenches and villages. This usually happens only after artillery has cleared the area and the few surviving Ukrainians have moved out. The map from a month ago compared to today shows small but important differences on this front line.
Those ones:LiveUAmap-bigger
Those ones:LiveUAmap-bigger
There must be a Ukrainian supreme command to hold Bakhmut at all costs. The Ukrainian army repeatedly sent reserve brigades into the area. Its exploitation is extremely expensive:
Toni @Cyberspec1 -5:46 pm December 10thThe Polish newspaper NDP (Independent Political Journal) believes that without NATO support, the fighting in 🇺🇦 would end in a week.
NDP: Daily AFU casualties in Bakhmut reach one battalion (500-800 troops), hospitals in Konstantinovka city are overcrowded,
The above is not the only source that has made this claim.
Grande Serge @witte_sergei -6:32 PM UTC · Dec.LPR officials claim Ukraine is transferring up to 500 men *per day* to Bakhmut to compensate for losses. Even Arestovych recognized the strength of Russian artillery in this sectorhas a 9 to 1 advantage. Bakhmut becomes the biggest and most expensive battle of the war in Ukraine.
news weekspoke with a "former" US colonel who trains Ukrainian soldiers along with "volunteers". Here it iswhat does he say about ukrainian losses:
"Bakhmut is like Dresden, and the landscape looks like Passchendaele," he said, referring to the German city destroyed by Allied bombing in World War II and the notoriously muddy and bloody battlefield of World War I. "It's just a terrible, miserable place."Ukraine closely follows the casualty count, but its forces around Bakhmut are believed to be suffering badly.
"They suffered an extraordinary number of casualties," Milburn said of the units that trained with Mozart. "The numbers you read in the media, that about 70% or more of the victims are routine, are not exaggerated."
(Video) #MED2020 | The Politics of Pandemics: evolving Regime-opposition Dynamics in the MENA RegionDespite their "tremendous morale", said Milburn, the defenders "had an acute 'regeneration problem', meaning getting new recruits on the line as quickly as possible". This means that those thrown into battle have little beyond basic training.
"Typically about 80 percent of our shot that goes off the line has never fired a gun before," Milburn said. "We cut our work for ourselves."
A unit with 50% kills is generally not fit to fight and must be replaced. But the Ukrainians leave their units at the front until there is almost no one left in them.
The number of 500 casualties per day on the Bakhmut front seems realistic. In recent months, thedaily reportof the Ministry of Defense of Russia recorded an average of about 300 Ukrainian casualties per day. But the ministry does not report Bakhmut casualties because it does not include the operations of private military contractor Wagner. So the daily total over the past month must have been around 800 Ukrainians killed, despite little movement on the front. At least 24,000 Ukrainian soldiers left the battlefield in the 30 days between the first two maps.
No wonder such high numbers cannot be replaced.
The mix of killed or wounded will likely be 1 to 1 as medical evacuation from frontline trenches is extremely difficult. Most of the wounded will simply die there.
Not only men are lost. The equipment they use is often lost with them. 24,000 men correspond to 6 to 7 NATO brigades. The Bundeswehr now has only 8 of them. When I was in this army I had 36 brigades plus significant reserve units. The same big downgrade happened to the overall state of NATO. Not ready for a war with Russia.
Western wounding weapons have done little for Ukraine. The Russians have upgraded their air defense systems to now detect and shoot down HIMARS missiles. They report about 10 to 20 of these murders a day. Launches of small and medium-sized Ukrainian drones have dropped from 20-30 per day in summer to 2-3 per day. Either the Ukrainians ran out of drones or the weather made theirs useless. Russian drones continue to fly and help target artillery. Western artillery systems cannot be repaired in the field because Ukrainians lack the training and tools to do so. OWall Street Journal reports:
Less than 50% of self-propelled howitzers - a class of mobile long-barreled battle guns officially known as PzH2000 howitzers and widely considered one of the most powerful weapons of their kind - are on the battlefield at any one time because they have been flown to to Lithuania for repairs nearly 900 miles from the Kherson front in southern Ukraine, senior German officials said. Germany has already delivered 14 of these weapons, the Netherlands another five.Other allies such as the US and Britain are serving the weapons they donated to Ukraine in Poland, close to the Ukrainian border. But Warsaw refused to allow Berlin to set up a service center in Poland, asking German manufacturers to provide confidential technical information so that a Polish state company could do the work, according to German officials involved in the talks.
there was alsoa spitabout Patriot anti-aircraft missiles. Germany offered to station them in eastern Poland, but with German crews. Poland initially accepted the offer, then rejected it, saying the missiles should go to Ukraine. She then gave up and now wants to accept the offer.
International relations in Europe are getting worse. German Chancellor Olaf Scholzexplainedthat he wants Germany to become the leading power in Europe. Germany's neighbors and most of its own population are not happy about this.
For the past five months, Latvia has hosted the Russian opposition channel TVrain. Now that got him down because TVrain, which was broadcasting to a Russian audience, also had some positive things to say about Russia. TVrain survived 12 years in Russia. In Latvia, it took only four and a half months.
Alec Luhn @ASLuhn -19:24 UTC · December 9,.@tvrain journalists were blacklisted in Latvia and declared foreign agents in Russia on the same day 🤔
shortcut
What these anecdotes show is that NATO is slowly disintegrating. NATO is losing the proxy war in Ukraine, and losing big. People know and there will be consequences. An increasingly authoritarian EU will follow suit.
But there are powers in NATO that want to prevent that fall. They will try to contact NATO directlyin the fight:
NATO's secretary general warned on Friday that Russia's war in Ukraine could escalate into a bigger war with the Atlantic Alliance.Official Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly warned in media interviews this week against downplaying the situation in Ukraine, emphasizing the biggest threat that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin could pose to Europe.
"When things go terribly wrong, they can go terribly wrong," Stoltenberg said in an interview with Norwegian journalist Anne Lindmo published on Friday, in which he added that "there is no doubt" that a full-fledged war against NATO is "real". ."Possibility".
“I understand anyone who is fed up with supporting Ukraine. I understand anyone who thinks that food prices and utility bills are too high," he said. "But we have to pay a much higher price when our freedom and peace are threatened by a Putin victory in Ukraine."
Read the last sentence again:
"But we have to pay a much higher price when our freedom and peace are threatened by a Putin victory in Ukraine."
Will Putin's victory in Ukraine, what he is doing, threaten our freedom and peace?
Russia has no interest in Europe beyond Ukrainian borders. So how can this put us in danger?
It's bullshit, but it's to goad NATO into the war when it's becoming obvious to everyone that Russia is winning.
the russianssee it coming:
NATO countries are becoming increasingly involved in the conflict in Ukraine, with the United States deliberately escalating along the way, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Rossiya-24 TV channel on Thursday. fair."NATO members are increasingly directly involved in this conflict. Their support for Kyiv is much broader today than it was a few months ago. This is a reflection of Washington's conscious policy, dutifully followed by the Europeans, to escalate the conflict. you ." playing with fire The risks are increasing," Ryabkov said.
In fact. But Stoltenberg hasa certain:
Stoltenberg's comments came two days after he said Russia was deliberately delaying the war in preparation for another attack on Ukrainian forces next year.
Suppose Russia waits until March before launching its full-scale attack on Ukraine. Meanwhile, she continues to wear down the Ukrainian army without taking significant casualties. By then, the Ukrainian army will have lost another 72,000 men. That's probably a third of their current strength. By this time, your acute "recovery problem" will have become even more acute. That means it will be much weaker then.
What plans might Russia have for a full-scale spring attack?
Dr Michael Vlahos and Colonel Douglas Macgregor are military historians. You watched the war in Ukraine and discussed it recently. They reached their own conclusions. Neither believe in the nonsense of a winning Ukraine that the “Western” media is trying to sell us. They have ideas about how Russia wants to attack.
The first part of his talk is here:
Is the war in Ukraine entering its decisive phase? Part 1
Why the strategic failure of NATO? A war of deception, denial Pt2
What should I do? Can a corrupt US army be renewed? part 3
Each of these videos is about 30-50 minutes long. But it's higher-level content than you'll see on other talk shows. I recommend these.
Posted by b on Dec 10, 2022 at 17:24 UTC |link permanente
" previous page
#98 I follow Romanian news quite closely, and I think there are a total of around 1500 "mercenaries", otherwise known as regular Romanian troops, working secretly in Ukraine, although the number fluctuates as they return home or are wounded etc. .
To be honest, the Romanian army doesn't even have 10,000 soldiers left. The current strength is 68,500 active employees (including cooks and pencil pressers) and 53,000 reserves (and most of these reserves are just on the list to receive a monthly payment from the government).
Posted by: Sam | Dec 12, 2022 8:13 UTC |301
For those who can't find the transcripts of the Vlahos/Macgregor interviews...
You must follow the article links which will take you to Michael's videos on his channel.
Click or press the little pointer down on the far left of the title... the View Transcript button is at the bottom of the description dropdown box. Push that and your kitchen is on gas.
Same with parts 2 and 3.
As YouTube is full of plagiarists, you might see the videos on another channel and the transcripts will likely be missing. Follow the links of b
Posted by: Klaatu | December 12, 2022 10:30 UTC |302
As I've been saying since day one of this fake "SMO" (which is really just a staged swamp), Putin is deliberately dragging it along and has no immediate plans to end it with any decisive manoeuvre. However, I'm not as sure as I used to be that the Russian Artillery Club of the 1980s, also known as the Russian Army, could do this even if it wanted to. But the war appears to be monetizing Russia - at the cost of failing the EU and, more importantly, weakening demand for the petrodollar. These are the ONLY true goals of “SMO” and therefore “SMO” will continue until these goals are sufficiently explored or until Putin commits suicide by ingesting radioactive vodka. The one thing Putin can't control in all this mess is the escalation of the US (and his favorite puppet, NATO). If the US/NATO provided Ukraine with adequate combat capability (in any form) to repel Russia, then Putin would have no room to manoeuvre. And it's sorry to shatter all of Yuris' illusions about western combat power, but it's frighteningly effective when actually used to win. However, Russia does NOT have the combination of conventional weapons to flatten Ukraine that the US has to flatten Moscow, for example, so it would stick with the nuclear option. He himself has alluded to this cornered scenario many times. But Putin couldn't actually use nuclear weapons, or the whole "free world" (95% of which was paid for by the US taxpayer, of course) would rain hellfire on him minutes - yes, minutes - later. So, frankly, I don't know why the US/NATO doesn't escalate and expose Putin's nuclear bluff. Because as his mace of artillery is funneled back hundreds of kilometers, he'll beg for peace... while hiring several hundred tasters. That's just my pragmatic point of view. My sincere wish is that the US will completely pull out of Europe and finally beat you petty socialist tribal pagans (or are you pagan tribesmen) to oblivion or unity, whichever comes first.
Posted by: Tom SteChatte | Dec 12, 2022 15:01 UTC |303
Tom SteChatte | Dec 12, 2022 15:01 UTC | 303
The US would do it if it could. The US is or was a sea and air power, but not a land power. Russian air defense negates US air power. Add to that the logistics of waging war on Russia's doorstep. The relatively static artillery war that Russia is waging has left the US swaying in the wind.
This war will likely continue until NATO begins to disintegrate or Ukrainians turn their weapons against the Nazis and their government. It is doubtful that EU and NATO units will last that long. Several cold and hungry winters can drive them out. Since then, the supply of weapons to Ukraine has declined. If most of its power is gone, Ukraine's GDP will be close to zero.
The West will not only have to pay for the war, but also for keeping something like a functioning economy in Ukraine.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | December 12, 2022 15:51 UTC |304
In Russian, there is an appropriate proverb for this article, which can be translated as "Spending against a virtue." War of attrition is a shoddy - though often unavoidable - way of winning wars, and in this particular case, reliance on attrition not only multiplies human suffering on both sides, but also creates a dangerous image of Russian weakness. Yes, I believe that cull ratios remain very unfavorable for Ukraine and are in the range of around 5:1. The DPR publishes exact Russian casualty figures weekly, and pro-NATO reporters from Mediazone scour the net for death notices posted openly by local authorities, newspapers and broadcasters, as well as prowling Russian cemeteries, their numbers only slightly higher than the latest figures. Russian KIA officers, at the time of publication of the latter, pessimistically speaking, losses in the order of up to 20,000 KIA are possible for the Russian side, counting everyone including PMCs; while for Ukraine the 100,000 KIA figure recently dropped by the Euroidiots might be a perverse thing, even the brainwashed Ukrozombies in their propaganda pipeline are relegating their official claims of 10-13,000 KIA to the wayside, I don't know, maybe all the milestones from the new cemeteries they arrive everywhere, with many photos and clips that appear on the internet despite all the censorship of the war.
However, I also believe that at this rate it would take more than 5 years to deplete Ukraine's workforce to the point of eventual collapse, while also resulting in the destruction of much of the country, compounding the dangerous image of weakness. Russia and 100-150,000 war dead on the Russian side. I maintain that no general or politician would gladly accept such trials and sacrifices, provided there was an alternative, however risky it might be. The obvious alternative to the tiresome and constant night companion is an offensive one. There is also immediate political pressure to push the Ukrainian army far enough away from Donetsk to minimize terrorist bombing and at least 10-15 km from the Russian border so that fighting is almost entirely confined to enemy territory. The mobilization itself also requires finding a solution to the war within a year or two - you cannot keep the mobilized in the ranks indefinitely. While I think this winter may be too early for a major offensive designed to deliver a victorious blow, as the personnel deployed are still inexperienced and deficiencies in equipment cannot be quickly remedied with land force suddenly more than doubled (possibly quadrupled, counting active troops in the war zone), it is very likely that some sort of Russian winter offensive will be attempted, even if with relatively limited targets.
Written by: Stanislav | December 12, 2022 8:54 PM UTC |305
mtw | December 11, 2022 1:14 pm | 256
Portraying America as a dangerous gun-toting psychopath that needs to be handled very carefully -- that's how I feel -- at least that's a description of what we have in the White House and the State Department now. What they will do when faced with utter defeat is unclear. We have ideologically similar hardcore people in Germany - although they are far from the nuclear buttons, there is still a lot of damage to be done through their foreign policy. Let's see what happens in the case of Kosovo.
Posted by: grunts | December 12, 2022 21:54 UTC |306
The reports and reviews here are very biased. You smoke, yes, the situation is not good for Ukrainians. But to say that the Russian army is not in a "hurry", just "opportunistic", sitting and mowing the Ukrainians with a beer in the other hand - it's ridiculous.
Posted by: Mr. Magoo | December 13, 2022 1:30 pm |307
Any chance of finding writers who can spell and know how grammar works? I understand you're addressing an uneducated audience, but still.
Posted by: Cool Xenu | December 13, 2022 19:47 UTC |308
Cool Xenu | Dec 13, 2022 19:47 UTC | 308
Any chance of finding writers who can spell and know how grammar works? I understand you're addressing an uneducated audience, but still.
Sorry, he's not targeting an uneducated audience like you. Try to learn some better English next time!
Posted by: James K | December 18, 2022 0:51 UTC |309
" previous page
Comments on this entry are closed.
« 'Minsk II agreed to arm Ukraine' - Did Merkel really say that?|Mainly|MoA Review of the Week - (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-221 »